Rising credit spreads are considered a warning signal for equity markets. But how much forward-looking inference do they really allow? Are high-yield bonds the "canary in the coal mine", or do they merely correlate or follow equity markets? Our publication examines the historical relationship between junk bond spreads and the stock market in the United States and investigates whether spreads did indeed signal future drawdowns.
December and January are the months of investment outlooks. So we skimmed read quite a few 'year ahead' publications, summarised them and are now looking forward to reviewing this article again in 11 months. Generally, we note a surprisingly and somewhat concerningly strong consensus on the 2022 path of the world economy and its implications for equities and limited dispersion in the views on sectors and styles.
The Shiller P/E has long been advertised as a superior valuation measure. Now, this proliferate indicator has surpassed the psychologically important mark of 40x and is close to its last all-time high reached during the Dotcom bubble. Our article investigates what share buybacks may have to do with the structurally higher Shiller P/E observed since the turn of the century and what current levels imply for expected equity returns.
Forward-looking aggregate equity market valuations, at least in Europe, still don't look excessive. However, under the hood, parts of the universe have experienced massive multiples expansion and are now more expensive than during the Dotcom bubble. At the same time, the cheaper stocks are as cheap as ever. Our study shows that this phenomenon is more broad-based than anecdotal evidence indicates, and we find it increasingly concerning.