News and publications

Many investors are uncomfortable with significant lump-sum investments in risky assets. It is therefore often recommended to stagger the market entry. While this strategy sounds intuitive, we asked ourselves how effective it really is in reducing downside risk and improving an investor’s risk/return profile. We, therefore, studied the distribution of rolling 5-year returns of one-time and phased investments in the S&P 500 over several decades. The results are somewhat surprising.

What would the grand seigneur of economic liberalism say about the ESG (Environment, Social, and Governance) trend in today's investment industry? This month's paper looks into the discussion about the "purpose of business" and puts Friedman's often misunderstood critique of Corporate Social Responsibility into perspective. Beyond that, we elaborate on our philanthropic activities, providing some information on the background and work of the L'Association Suisse pour la Recherche sur l'Alzheimer (APRA).

Rising credit spreads are considered a warning signal for equity markets. But how much forward-looking inference do they really allow? Are high-yield bonds the "canary in the coal mine", or do they merely correlate or follow equity markets? Our publication examines the historical relationship between junk bond spreads and the stock market in the United States and investigates whether spreads did indeed signal future drawdowns.

December and January are the months of investment outlooks. So we skimmed read quite a few 'year ahead' publications, summarised them and are now looking forward to reviewing this article again in 11 months. Generally, we note a surprisingly and somewhat concerningly strong consensus on the 2022 path of the world economy and its implications for equities and limited dispersion in the views on sectors and styles.